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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.