Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
